By Gaurav Arora
The April series Nifty futures is currently trading with a premium of around 70 points which was >150 at the start of the series.
For the Index futures, FII Net Index Long exposure is at 45% which is more or less stagnant since the start of Mar series.
After a good run-up, some profit taking or time-wise correction can’t be ruled out, however we believe Index may continue finding support around lower levels.
Nifty Rejig: Trent, BEL to replace Divi’s Lab, LTI Mindtree on Nifty from Sep 30 Markets see strong recovery in last hour! Nifty near 24,800, Sensex above 80,900 Are Nifty bulls ready to reclaim the 25,000 mark? See GIFT Nifty, FII data, F&O ban, crude, more before market opens Will Nifty continue to see positive momentum from 24,300 on Friday? See GIFT Nifty, FII data, F&O, crude, and more before market opens
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Sports betting site VPbet 21,300-21,400 might be the immediate support and only a decisive close below it might bring in some downside.
VIX for the Nifty is currently at around 12 and likely to remain in the 11 to 14 levels implying a range of around 700 points in a month.
For the Nifty, the IVs for the options remained around 13 levels in yesterday’s trade.
For the Nifty, the VWAP (Volume weighted average price) is around 22,450-500 implying that to be the support. Below this, Nifty is to be negatively biased for the short term towards 22,150-200.
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The ratio between Bank Nifty and Nifty is currently at 2.14, this ratio has a support at 2.06 and resistance near 2.20. We expect Bank Nifty to continue its outperformance w.r.t Nifty going forward.
Sector-wise, Auto and Banking look good in Nifty.
Nifty Calendar Spread:-
Sell Nifty 18 Apr 22,600 PE @ 85
Buy Nifty 25 Apr 22,600 PE @ 123
Spread @38, Stop Loss – 8, Target -72
(Gaurav Arora is a Derivatives Analyst at Religare Broking. Views expressed are the author’s own. Please consult your financial advisor before investing.)
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